Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 14 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.8

Combined PnL

-$461.49

Smart Money Entry

8.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$3.8

Total Shares5,687

Combined PnL-$461.49

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

237h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$6.1	$1.69	-$4.41	28% 5951-15564 (21515)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$120.6	$1.26	-$120.3	35% 555-1035 (1590)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$159.55	$0.41	-$159.14	35% 16909-31257 (48166)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$43.46	$0.11	-$43.35	39% 187-288 (475)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$27.66	$0.07	-$27.59	49% 7439-7667 (15106)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$23.44	$0.06	-$23.38	28% 231-602 (833)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.97	$0.05	-$20.92	25% 180-537 (717)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12	$0.03	-$11.97	30% 320-759 (1079)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12	$0.03	-$11.97	31% 364-814 (1178)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12	$0.03	-$11.97	30% 367-838 (1205)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$12	$0.03	-$11.97	30% 350-813 (1163)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8	$0.02	-$7.98	28% 212-552 (764)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$6.55	$0.02	-$6.54	59% 218-153 (371)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0	-$0	51% 443-427 (870)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$4.41

Record

28%

5951-15564 (21515)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.6

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$120.3

Record

35%

555-1035 (1590)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.55

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$159.14

Record

35%

16909-31257 (48166)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.46

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$43.35

Record

39%

187-288 (475)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.66

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$27.59

Record

49%

7439-7667 (15106)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.44

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$23.38

Record

28%

231-602 (833)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.97

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$20.92

Record

25%

180-537 (717)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.97

Record

30%

320-759 (1079)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.97

Record

31%

364-814 (1178)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.97

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$11.97

Record

30%

350-813 (1163)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$7.98

Record

28%

212-552 (764)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.54

Record

59%

218-153 (371)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

443-427 (870)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

237h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.