Al Sadd SC vs. Al-Shamal: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$101.46

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 99.5¢

+62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$506.12

Total Shares973

Combined PnL+$33.65

Over3 traders

Total Value$534.52

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL-$135.11

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 54.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.88	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.4¢	$717.94	$646.29	-$71.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.5¢	$429.83	$503.37	+$73.54
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 50¢	$420.5	$428.51	+$8.01	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Overavg 62.2¢	$383.81	$396.52	+$12.71	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.2¢	$272.84	$215.11	-$57.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.2¢	$110.97	$181.41	+$70.44
FO foooool	Overavg 51.5¢	$312.91	$297.81	-$15.1	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$172.01	$240.51	+$68.5	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$150.36	$138.92	-$11.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 10.9¢	$21.65	$101.59	+$79.94
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 89.5¢	$260.64	$142.76	-$117.88	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
DA dashattacker<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$96.08	$93.96	-$2.12	72% 2363-907 (3270)
poshposhARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$35.78	$59.09	+$23.31	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
└ Under leg	Underavg 17.1¢	$12.02	$35.81	+$23.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$23.76	$23.28	-$0.48
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 28.6¢	$29.64	$52.85	+$23.21	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$20	$22.2	+$2.2	64% 1071-606 (1677)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 46.4¢	$2.33	$2.56	+$0.23	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,147.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.88

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

Both legs:

Over$717.9454.4¢-$71.66

Under$429.8343.5¢+$73.54

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$420.5

Value

$428.51

PnL

+$8.01

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$383.81

Value

$396.52

PnL

+$12.71

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

Both legs:

Over$272.8462.2¢-$57.73

Under$110.9731.2¢+$70.44

foooool

Over

Invested

$312.91

Value

$297.81

PnL

-$15.1

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$172.01

Value

$240.51

PnL

+$68.5

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Both legs:

Over$150.3653¢-$11.45

Under$21.6510.9¢+$79.94

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$260.64

Value

$142.76

PnL

-$117.88

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

dashattacker<$100

Over

Invested

$96.08

Value

$93.96

PnL

-$2.12

Record

72%

2363-907 (3270)

poshposhARB<$100

Over

Invested

$35.78

Value

$59.09

PnL

+$23.31

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

Both legs:

Under$12.0217.1¢+$23.79

Over$23.7650¢-$0.48

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.64

Value

$52.85

PnL

+$23.21

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$2.2

Record

64%

1071-606 (1677)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.