Al Sadd SC vs. Al-Shamal: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
$1.9K
$49.07
57.2¢ → 83¢
+45% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 56.1¢ | $2.7K | $1.6K | +$25.62 | 72% 2363-907 (3270) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 65.5¢ | $247.94 | $314.26 | +$66.32 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.8¢ | $72.14 | $39.22 | -$32.92 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
RO Rocko33CTR<$100 | Overavg 87.3¢ | $13.1 | $1.7 | -$9.95 | 64% 1071-606 (1677) |
Invested
$2,737.36
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$25.62
Record
72%
2363-907 (3270)
Invested
$247.94
Value
$314.26
PnL
+$66.32
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$72.14
Value
$39.22
PnL
-$32.92
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Invested
$13.1
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$9.95
Record
64%
1071-606 (1677)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.