Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$19.7K

Combined PnL

$69.31

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares19,739

Combined PnL+$109.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.55

Total Shares2,817

Combined PnL-$40.11

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
yen4u	Noavg 99.5¢	$16.9K	$16.9K	+$73.92	85% 1006-180 (1186)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$2.14	85% 584-102 (686)
kinderSman	Noavg 99.5¢	$500	$499.75	+$2.25	93% 534-38 (572)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 93.5¢	$258	$257.87	+$16.64	90% 5629-601 (6230)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 90.9¢	$146.6	$161.07	+$14.47	49% 22834-23666 (46500)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$3.98	$16.24	-$3.88	15% 4992-29310 (34302)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$2	$1	-$1	39% 241-375 (616)
CarCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$17.32	$0.19	-$17.13	66% 4490-2319 (6809)
VI VitaaalyaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$18.21	$0.11	-$18.1	70% 258-108 (366)

yen4u

Invested

$16,946.78

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$73.92

Record

85%

1006-180 (1186)

kukubaja

Invested

$1,872.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$2.14

Record

85%

584-102 (686)

kinderSman

Invested

$500

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$2.25

Record

93%

534-38 (572)

nonkenny90

Invested

$258

Value

$257.87

PnL

+$16.64

Record

90%

5629-601 (6230)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$146.6

Value

$161.07

PnL

+$14.47

Record

49%

22834-23666 (46500)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.98

Value

$16.24

PnL

-$3.88

Record

15%

4992-29310 (34302)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

39%

241-375 (616)

CarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.32

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$17.13

Record

66%

4490-2319 (6809)

VitaaalyaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.21

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$18.1

Record

70%

258-108 (366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.