Will Portimonense SAD win on 2026-11-15?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$2.2K
-$349.76
65.8¢ → 87.5¢
+33% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$23.1 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 58¢ | $418.9 | $411.68 | -$7.22 | 16% 58-297 (355) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 32.2¢ | $467.51 | $152.4 | -$315.11 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $101.91 | $97.47 | -$4.44 | 53% 1889-1648 (3537) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $62.33 | $60.59 | -$1.73 | 37% 1336-2230 (3566) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $24.93 | $25.49 | +$0.57 | 34% 465-896 (1361) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $24.79 | $24.61 | -$0.18 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $14.25 | $14.25 | +$0 | 38% 1342-2205 (3547) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $10.15 | $10.08 | -$0.08 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $8.9 | $5 | +$1 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $3.28 | $4.07 | +$0.78 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.94 | $1.69 | -$0.25 | 55% 493-407 (900) |
Invested
$1,446.58
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$23.1
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$418.9
Value
$411.68
PnL
-$7.22
Record
16%
58-297 (355)
Invested
$467.51
Value
$152.4
PnL
-$315.11
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$101.91
Value
$97.47
PnL
-$4.44
Record
53%
1889-1648 (3537)
Invested
$62.33
Value
$60.59
PnL
-$1.73
Record
37%
1336-2230 (3566)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$24.93
Value
$25.49
PnL
+$0.57
Record
34%
465-896 (1361)
Invested
$24.79
Value
$24.61
PnL
-$0.18
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1342-2205 (3547)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$10.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.78
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
Invested
$1.94
Value
$1.69
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
493-407 (900)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.