Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will FC Penafiel win on 2026-11-02?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$5.27

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 49.5¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,306

Combined PnL+$28.95

No7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,850

Combined PnL-$23.68

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Yesavg 48¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$30.69	50% 495-492 (987)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$12.32	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 52¢	$662.71	$656.34	-$6.37	50% 2584-2581 (5165)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 52¢	$520	$515	-$5	47% 2623-2923 (5546)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 52.5¢	$271.36	$303.35	-$1.67	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Yesavg 48¢	$240	$242.5	+$2.5	53% 1051-933 (1984)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$94.28	$45.73	-$4.24	45% 12937-15707 (28644)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$40.43	$41.51	+$1.08	46% 9230-10942 (20172)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$9.36	$10.04	+$0.68	50% 243-246 (489)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$8.32	$8.24	-$0.08	53% 6378-5764 (12142)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Yes

Invested

$2,739.39

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$30.69

Record

50%

495-492 (987)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,583.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$12.32

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$662.71

Value

$656.34

PnL

-$6.37

Record

50%

2584-2581 (5165)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$520

Value

$515

PnL

-$5

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$271.36

Value

$303.35

PnL

-$1.67

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

TheComboConnoisseur

Yes

Invested

$240

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1051-933 (1984)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.28

Value

$45.73

PnL

-$4.24

Record

45%

12937-15707 (28644)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$40.43

Value

$41.51

PnL

+$1.08

Record

46%

9230-10942 (20172)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Invested

$9.36

Value

$10.04

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

243-246 (489)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.