Will Leixoes SC win on 2026-11-15?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 94¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Yes94¢No6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$428.62

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 93.5¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,907

Combined PnL+$564.83

No9 traders

Total Value$674.67

Total Shares2,508

Combined PnL-$136.21

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 52.6¢	$977.03	$1.7K	+$739.79	17% 62-300 (362)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 80.4¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$173.19	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 24.1¢	$368.41	$241.43	-$126.98	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 47¢	$208.33	$203.9	-$4.43	41% 166-240 (406)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$192.43	$186.24	-$6.19	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
dips.	Yesavg 93¢	$177.96	$156.15	-$5.01	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 92.4¢	$121.83	$122	+$0.17	46% 888-1048 (1936)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 84.4¢	$20.14	$21.46	+$1.31	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$19.03	$18.44	-$0.59	35% 485-917 (1402)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$8.86	$8.67	-$0.19	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$6.66	$7.91	+$1.25	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$3.8	$5.56	+$1.76	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$5.06	$5.18	+$0.12	36% 649-1179 (1828)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.05	$2.3	+$1.25	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.04	$0.6	-$0.44	48% 2576-2780 (5356)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$977.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$739.79

Record

17%

62-300 (362)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,840.23

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$173.19

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$368.41

Value

$241.43

PnL

-$126.98

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$208.33

Value

$203.9

PnL

-$4.43

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$192.43

Value

$186.24

PnL

-$6.19

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$177.96

Value

$156.15

PnL

-$5.01

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$121.83

Value

$122

PnL

+$0.17

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.14

Value

$21.46

PnL

+$1.31

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$19.03

Value

$18.44

PnL

-$0.59

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$8.86

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$0.19

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$1.25

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$1.76

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.12

Record

36%

649-1179 (1828)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$1.25

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.44

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.