Will GD Chaves win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$152.38
60.7¢ → 76¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 60.2¢ | $778.33 | $901.59 | +$123.26 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 62.9¢ | $194.16 | $222.08 | +$27.92 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $15.4 | $16.55 | +$1.15 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $7.03 | $7.13 | -$0.03 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 59.2¢ | $5.83 | $5.9 | +$0.08 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
Invested
$778.33
Value
$901.59
PnL
+$123.26
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
rayvanmechelenInvested
$194.16
Value
$222.08
PnL
+$27.92
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$15.4
Value
$16.55
PnL
+$1.15
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$7.13
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.