Amarante FC vs. FC Felgueiras 1932: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$612.29

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 78¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,471

Combined PnL+$460.02

Over5 traders

Total Value$785.8

Total Shares1,754

Combined PnL+$152.28

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.7¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$455.93	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 33.1¢	$549.16	$688.1	+$141.56	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 61.5¢	$352	$378.93	+$26.93	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$267.79	$248.12	-$19.67
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.7¢	$84.21	$130.81	+$46.6
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$52.8	$59.42	+$6.62	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 60¢	$30	$28	-$2	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$18.87	$21.4	+$2.53	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 56¢	$11.2	$11.4	+$0.2	83% 960-199 (1159)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$8.45	$9.32	+$0.87	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 41.4¢	$6.33	$8.71	+$2.38	35% 628-1146 (1774)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 56¢	$5.6	$7.8	+$2.2	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$6.86	$7.56	+$0.7	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$5.7	+$1.3	39% 1554-2430 (3984)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,389.03

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$455.93

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$549.16

Value

$688.1

PnL

+$141.56

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$352

Value

$378.93

PnL

+$26.93

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

Both legs:

Under$267.7961.5¢-$19.67

Over$84.2127.7¢+$46.6

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.8

Value

$59.42

PnL

+$6.62

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$28

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.87

Value

$21.4

PnL

+$2.53

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.45

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$0.87

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$6.33

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$2.38

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$2.2

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.7

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$1.3

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+22 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.