Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Amarante FC vs. FC Felgueiras 1932: O/U 0.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $257 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$256.73

Combined PnL

-$512.5

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$246.74

Total Shares3,278

Combined PnL-$513.1

Over1 trader

Total Value$10

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.6

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 13.1¢	$81.09	$185.51	+$104.42	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$22	$60	+$38	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 94¢	$9.4	$10	+$0.6	82% 279-60 (339)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 26.9¢	$492.82	$0.92	-$491.9	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 22.9¢	$59.95	$0.13	-$59.82	41% 126-183 (309)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$62.55	$0.1	-$62.45	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$13.31	$0.03	-$13.28	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$10.6	$0.02	-$10.58	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 28.3¢	$10.66	$0.02	-$10.64	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 28.8¢	$6.87	$0.01	-$6.85	35% 628-1146 (1774)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$81.09

Value

$185.51

PnL

+$104.42

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22

Value

$60

PnL

+$38

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.6

Record

82%

279-60 (339)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$492.82

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$491.9

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.95

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$59.82

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.55

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$62.45

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$13.28

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$10.58

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.66

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$10.64

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.87

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.85

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.