Will FC Felgueiras 1932 win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$49.86

Smart Money Entry

73.8¢ → 90.5¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,574

Combined PnL+$138.76

Yes6 traders

Total Value$198.45

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL-$88.9

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$437.21	$484.41	+$47.2	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$508.59	$368.68	-$139.91	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$203.71	$242.46	+$38.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$304.88	$126.22	-$178.66
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 74¢	$265.16	$283.08	+$17.92	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73.6¢	$243.95	$261.84	+$17.89	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$269.46	$186.55	-$82.91	16% 58-297 (355)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 72¢	$129.19	$165.97	+$36.78	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 76¢	$49.97	$60.82	+$10.85	41% 126-183 (309)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$28.99	$36.99	+$8	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 88¢	$7.48	$7.61	+$0.13	35% 628-1146 (1774)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$7.3	$6.3	-$1	34% 460-894 (1354)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$7.61	$2.28	-$5.33	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.93	$1.4	+$0.47	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$13.88	$1.02	+$0.38	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.9	-$0.5	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$437.21

Value

$484.41

PnL

+$47.2

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$508.59

Value

$368.68

PnL

-$139.91

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

No$203.7176¢+$38.75

Yes$304.8822.9¢-$178.66

SnakeBall

Invested

$265.16

Value

$283.08

PnL

+$17.92

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$243.95

Value

$261.84

PnL

+$17.89

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Yes

Invested

$269.46

Value

$186.55

PnL

-$82.91

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

LightParadox

Invested

$129.19

Value

$165.97

PnL

+$36.78

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

foooool<$100

Invested

$49.97

Value

$60.82

PnL

+$10.85

Record

41%

126-183 (309)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$28.99

Value

$36.99

PnL

+$8

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0.13

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.3

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$1

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$5.33

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.47

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.88

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.