Will Amarante FC vs. FC Felgueiras 1932 end in a draw?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes82¢No18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$374.34

Smart Money Entry

31.5¢ → 81.5¢

+159% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$909.64

Total Shares1,118

Combined PnL+$558.02

No6 traders

Total Value$224.74

Total Shares656

Combined PnL-$183.68

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yesavg 31¢	$337.87	$886.96	+$549.09	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$922.91	$459.17	-$463.74	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.2¢	$801.7	$288	-$513.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.5¢	$121.21	$171.17	+$49.97
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 66.2¢	$155.73	$99.8	-$55.93	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 68¢	$172.47	$81.16	-$91.3	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$56.52	$26.6	-$29.92	40% 152-227 (379)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 46.8¢	$11.35	$19.78	+$8.43	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$8.66	$10.01	+$1.35	45% 363-445 (808)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 38.1¢	$8.3	$4.03	-$4.27	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$6.74	$3.14	-$3.6	34% 460-894 (1354)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.9	+$0.5	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$337.87

Value

$886.96

PnL

+$549.09

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$922.91

Value

$459.17

PnL

-$463.74

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

No$801.768.2¢-$513.7

Yes$121.2153.5¢+$49.97

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$155.73

Value

$99.8

PnL

-$55.93

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$172.47

Value

$81.16

PnL

-$91.3

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$56.52

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$29.92

Record

40%

152-227 (379)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.35

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$8.43

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.66

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$1.35

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$8.3

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$4.27

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$3.6

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.