Will Amarante FC win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$6.61

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 91¢

+39% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,131

Combined PnL+$39.13

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.46

Total Shares152

Combined PnL-$32.53

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 63.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$15.39	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 84.4¢	$159.03	$157.18	-$1.85	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 74¢	$92.16	$98.39	+$6.23	35% 628-1146 (1774)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 38.7¢	$9.16	$18.71	+$9.55	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$32	$16	-$16	48% 469-508 (977)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 29¢	$3.59	$9.83	+$6.24	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.7	$7.9	+$2.2	16% 58-297 (355)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 57¢	$3.59	$4.97	+$1.38	34% 460-894 (1354)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.8¢	$13.01	$3.11	-$9.9	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.7¢	$2.41	$2.76	+$0.34	46% 873-1017 (1890)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 57.6¢	$17.43	$2.6	-$6.97	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,737.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15.39

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$159.03

Value

$157.18

PnL

-$1.85

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$92.16

Value

$98.39

PnL

+$6.23

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$9.55

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32

Value

$16

PnL

-$16

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$6.24

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$2.2

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.59

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$1.38

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.01

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$9.9

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.34

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.43

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$6.97

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.