Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$64.13

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 86¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,383

Combined PnL-$52.03

Yes3 traders

Total Value$509.56

Total Shares3,493

Combined PnL+$116.16

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 89.4¢	$706.1	$660.53	-$66.2	89% 4586-544 (5130)
JI jiafan	Noavg 83.6¢	$495.99	$510.16	+$14.17	59% 1454-1018 (2472)
alphaaliiCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$262.13	$380.08	+$117.96	— 11-4 (15)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$68.5	$83.34	+$14.84	70% 399-175 (574)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$192.2	$46.14	-$16.63	36% 14842-26964 (41806)

nonkenny90

Invested

$706.1

Value

$660.53

PnL

-$66.2

Record

89%

4586-544 (5130)

jiafan

Invested

$495.99

Value

$510.16

PnL

+$14.17

Record

59%

1454-1018 (2472)

alphaaliiCTR

Yes

Invested

$262.13

Value

$380.08

PnL

+$117.96

Record

—

11-4 (15)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.5

Value

$83.34

PnL

+$14.84

Record

70%

399-175 (574)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$192.2

Value

$46.14

PnL

-$16.63

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.8%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.