Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-11-07?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $374 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$374.01
$2.05
94.7¢ → 95.5¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.3¢ | $197.05 | $198.55 | +$2.09 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $46.01 | $45.68 | -$0.33 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $39.79 | $40.22 | +$0.42 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $31.66 | $31.44 | -$0.23 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $19 | +$0.1 | 49% 14981-15890 (30871) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $18.8 | $19 | +$0.2 | 48% 62393-67249 (129642) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $14.25 | $14.33 | +$0.07 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $5 | $4.78 | +$0.03 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $1.11 | $0.81 | -$0.3 | 42% 2467-3377 (5844) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.22 | $0.22 | +$0 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
Invested
$197.05
Value
$198.55
PnL
+$2.09
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$46.01
Value
$45.68
PnL
-$0.33
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$39.79
Value
$40.22
PnL
+$0.42
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$31.66
Value
$31.44
PnL
-$0.23
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$19
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
14981-15890 (30871)
Invested
$18.8
Value
$19
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
62393-67249 (129642)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$14.33
PnL
+$0.07
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.3
Record
42%
2467-3377 (5844)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.