Will Sporting CP vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 88¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$12.9K
-$46.4
92.3¢ → 87.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.5¢ | $8.5K | $8.1K | -$375.31 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 91.8¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$80.94 | 49% 1844-1936 (3780) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $648.47 | $1.1K | +$404.08 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 92.5¢ | $700.05 | $676.45 | -$23.6 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $898.26 | $492.96 | +$16.11 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
MA MadridTimeARB<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $495.8 | $464.85 | -$30.95 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.6¢ | $384.18 | $344.4 | -$39.78 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $111.62 | $120.45 | +$8.83 | |
PA Pan9X | Noavg 91.1¢ | $474.84 | $213.38 | +$5.02 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $40.21 | $43.75 | +$3.54 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.14 | $7.85 | +$4.71 | 49% 15008-15929 (30937) |
Invested
$8,521.64
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$375.31
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$1,895.85
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$80.94
Record
49%
1844-1936 (3780)
RN1CTRInvested
$648.47
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$404.08
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$700.05
Value
$676.45
PnL
-$23.6
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$898.26
Value
$492.96
PnL
+$16.11
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$495.8
Value
$464.85
PnL
-$30.95
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Both legs:
Invested
$474.84
Value
$213.38
PnL
+$5.02
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$40.21
Value
$43.75
PnL
+$3.54
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$7.85
PnL
+$4.71
Record
49%
15008-15929 (30937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.