Will CD Nacional win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 71¢ · $535 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$534.58
$8.3
69¢ → 70.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 69¢ | $353.9 | $361.59 | +$7.69 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $89.97 | $89.76 | -$0.21 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $56.76 | $57.99 | +$1.23 | 51% 38217-37441 (75658) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $17.87 | $17.6 | -$0.27 | 48% 1767-1905 (3672) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $2.78 | $2.69 | -$0.09 | 50% 21541-21839 (43380) |
Invested
$353.9
Value
$361.59
PnL
+$7.69
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
Invested
$89.97
Value
$89.76
PnL
-$0.21
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$56.76
Value
$57.99
PnL
+$1.23
Record
51%
38217-37441 (75658)
Invested
$17.87
Value
$17.6
PnL
-$0.27
Record
48%
1767-1905 (3672)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
21541-21839 (43380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.