Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 62¢ · $798 held · ended Nov 7

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$797.61

Combined PnL

$7.2

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 62¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$628.32

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL+$1.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$169.3

Total Shares418

Combined PnL+$5.45

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60.8¢	$337.07	$335.56	-$1.51	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
VE Venusian	Noavg 60¢	$241.29	$243.3	+$2.01	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$411.36	$166.6	+$5.48	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 60¢	$32.3	$33.11	+$0.81	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 60¢	$12	$12.4	+$0.4	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2.73	$2.7	-$0.03	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 59¢	$0.86	$0.9	+$0.04	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

Flaznorp

Invested

$337.07

Value

$335.56

PnL

-$1.51

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Venusian

Invested

$241.29

Value

$243.3

PnL

+$2.01

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$411.36

Value

$166.6

PnL

+$5.48

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$32.3

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$0.81

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.