Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (88%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Moreirense FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 13¢ · $451 held · ended Sep 9
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 100%
$450.67
-$263.59
16¢ → 12.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 88%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 14.6¢ | $411.71 | $201.82 | -$2.37 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 15¢ | $207.61 | $172.78 | -$207.61 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 23.9¢ | $129.68 | $76.08 | -$53.6 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.