Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-11-06?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (77%) · Yes at 38¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Yes38¢No62¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 77%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$18.08

Smart Money Entry

37.5¢ → 37.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares7,622

Combined PnL-$17.92

No3 traders

Total Value$23.34

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$0.16

Yes — 77%No — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$933	$928.46	-$4.54	50% 28600-28435 (57035)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$647.87	$656.63	+$8.75	51% 26315-24941 (51256)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$414.26	$419.66	+$5.39	49% 14843-15636 (30479)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$389.35	$374.3	-$15.05	64% 10066-5621 (15687)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$371.54	$358.43	-$13.12	64% 10090-5691 (15781)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$81.74	$83.52	+$1.48	50% 26084-25740 (51824)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$14.6	$14.22	-$0.38	50% 1582-1596 (3178)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.7¢	$11.6	$11.25	-$0.35	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$7.4	$7.5	+$0.1	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$6	+$0.15	53% 16908-15025 (31933)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$4.25	$3.65	-$0.6	52% 8839-8035 (16874)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$3.06	$3.13	+$0.06	51% 1635-1545 (3180)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$1.02	$1.03	+$0.01	49% 292-304 (596)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$933

Value

$928.46

PnL

-$4.54

Record

50%

28600-28435 (57035)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$647.87

Value

$656.63

PnL

+$8.75

Record

51%

26315-24941 (51256)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$414.26

Value

$419.66

PnL

+$5.39

Record

49%

14843-15636 (30479)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$389.35

Value

$374.3

PnL

-$15.05

Record

64%

10066-5621 (15687)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$371.54

Value

$358.43

PnL

-$13.12

Record

64%

10090-5691 (15781)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.74

Value

$83.52

PnL

+$1.48

Record

50%

26084-25740 (51824)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14.22

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

1582-1596 (3178)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

16908-15025 (31933)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

8839-8035 (16874)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

1635-1545 (3180)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

292-304 (596)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.