Exact Score: Estoril Praia 0 - 0 CS Marítimo?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.6K
-$207.32
91.5¢ → 50.5¢
-45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 91.4¢ | $951.85 | $860.12 | -$91.73 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 92¢ | $553.55 | $494.76 | -$58.78 | 24% 90-284 (374) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $167.5 | $151.5 | -$16 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 91¢ | $108.53 | $98.75 | -$9.78 | 26% 89-254 (343) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $74.77 | $37.76 | -$31.03 | 23% 49-166 (215) |
Invested
$951.85
Value
$860.12
PnL
-$91.73
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
Invested
$553.55
Value
$494.76
PnL
-$58.78
Record
24%
90-284 (374)
VeryLucky888Invested
$167.5
Value
$151.5
PnL
-$16
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
Invested
$108.53
Value
$98.75
PnL
-$9.78
Record
26%
89-254 (343)
Invested
$74.77
Value
$37.76
PnL
-$31.03
Record
23%
49-166 (215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.