Will Estoril Praia vs. CS Marítimo end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $524 held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$523.56
-$19.79
72¢ → 64¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72¢ | $303.46 | $276.88 | -$26.58 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 72¢ | $155.36 | $172.74 | +$17.38 | 46% 30579-35678 (66257) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $66.47 | $60.05 | -$6.42 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $12.37 | $8.9 | -$3.47 | 49% 2208-2325 (4533) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $4.3 | $3.98 | -$0.33 | 52% 9515-8627 (18142) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.03 | -$0.38 | 47% 116-130 (246) |
Invested
$303.46
Value
$276.88
PnL
-$26.58
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$155.36
Value
$172.74
PnL
+$17.38
Record
46%
30579-35678 (66257)
Invested
$66.47
Value
$60.05
PnL
-$6.42
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
Invested
$12.37
Value
$8.9
PnL
-$3.47
Record
49%
2208-2325 (4533)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$3.98
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
9515-8627 (18142)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.38
Record
47%
116-130 (246)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.