Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 99.5¢

+71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares10,097

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,358

Combined PnL+$195.16

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.2¢	$6.0K	$9.9K	+$3.9K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 59.7¢	$5.6K	$3.2K	+$181.52	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 62¢	$632.4	$357.3	-$26.01	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 57¢	$550	$349.25	+$36	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 59¢	$393.57	$182.41	-$22.51	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$147.5	$91.25	-$56.25
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$57.43	$91.16	+$33.74
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Yesavg 62¢	$129.65	$82.33	+$1.94	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 59¢	$57.99	$58.74	+$3.37	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
PA Pan9XCTR	Yesavg 60.5¢	$307.71	$38.27	+$0.48	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$19.05	$19.92	+$0.87	76% 4861-1510 (6371)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$5	$3.17	+$1.22	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 36¢	$6.69	$2.44	+$0.03	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.8	$1.83	+$0.03	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

Flaznorp

Invested

$5,977.46

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,641.83

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$181.52

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$632.4

Value

$357.3

PnL

-$26.01

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$550

Value

$349.25

PnL

+$36

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$393.57

Value

$182.41

PnL

-$22.51

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

No$147.559¢-$56.25

Yes$57.4340¢+$33.74

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Yes

Invested

$129.65

Value

$82.33

PnL

+$1.94

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$57.99

Value

$58.74

PnL

+$3.37

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Pan9XCTR

Yes

Invested

$307.71

Value

$38.27

PnL

+$0.48

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$19.05

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.87

Record

76%

4861-1510 (6371)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$1.22

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.