Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 4.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 31¢ · $343 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
2
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$343.08
-$0.03
Research grade
NeutralOver at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $295.53 | $297.34 | +$1.82 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69.5¢ | $216.94 | $216.88 | -$0.07 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 29.8¢ | $78.57 | $80.47 | +$1.88 | |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $42.29 | $42.29 | -$0 | 44% 6422-8027 (14449) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.45 | -$0.03 | 52% 7634-6911 (14545) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.