Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC Alverca: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 2

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$19.19

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,852

Combined PnL+$47.94

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,008

Combined PnL-$28.75

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA marketmesh	Overavg 53.9¢	$5.4K	$2.9K	+$32.65	59% 101-71 (172)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 46¢	$885.04	$885.04	-$9.62	49% 13479-14174 (27653)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.6¢	$1.8K	$828.29	-$19.27	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
us391	Overavg 51¢	$103.96	$110.07	+$6.12	51% 1748-1710 (3458)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$102.99	$90.02	+$0.19	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$79.99	$83.73	+$3.74	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 50¢	$57.54	$62.72	+$5.18	49% 3236-3320 (6556)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$26.68	$26.68	+$0	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
BE berlinskies<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.4	+$0.25	58% 6030-4389 (10419)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$4.6	-$0.05	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

marketmesh

Over

Invested

$5,368.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$32.65

Record

59%

101-71 (172)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$885.04

Value

$885.04

PnL

-$9.62

Record

49%

13479-14174 (27653)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,820.42

Value

$828.29

PnL

-$19.27

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

us391

Over

Invested

$103.96

Value

$110.07

PnL

+$6.12

Record

51%

1748-1710 (3458)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$102.99

Value

$90.02

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$79.99

Value

$83.73

PnL

+$3.74

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$57.54

Value

$62.72

PnL

+$5.18

Record

49%

3236-3320 (6556)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.68

Value

$26.68

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

berlinskies<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

6030-4389 (10419)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.