Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold FC Alverca (64%) · FC Alverca at 73¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2

Sport Lisboa e Benfica28¢FC Alverca72¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Alverca

Consensus Traders

FC Alverca 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$64.81

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 72.5¢

+28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Alverca at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Alverca

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sport Lisboa e Benfica28%

FC Alverca73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Alverca7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,229

Combined PnL+$61.9

Sport Lisboa e Benfica4 traders

Total Value$56.78

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$2.91

FC Alverca — 64%Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	FC Alvercaavg 67.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$49.14	51% 17649-16650 (34299)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 40.9¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$797.99	50% 26441-26261 (52702)
└ Sport Lisboa e Benfica leg	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 40.9¢	$1.7K	$830.51	-$868.05
└ FC Alverca leg	FC Alvercaavg 69.8¢	$476.73	$546.78	+$70.06
RA rabbitfoot1	FC Alvercaavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	54% 1179-1021 (2200)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	FC Alvercaavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4	56% 162-127 (289)
SN SnakeBall<$100	FC Alvercaavg 64¢	$53.33	$54.17	+$0.83	50% 34723-34187 (68910)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100	FC Alvercaavg 51¢	$36.72	$37.08	+$0.36	65% 1245-674 (1919)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 48.7¢	$32.15	$31.99	-$0.16	45% 13007-15781 (28788)
VE Venusian<$100	FC Alvercaavg 70¢	$23.73	$26.44	+$2.71	51% 317-303 (620)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	FC Alvercaavg 51¢	$9.91	$14.77	+$4.86	58% 29915-21972 (51887)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 43¢	$11.42	$13.02	+$1.6	52% 6399-5797 (12196)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 41¢	$7.8	$9.32	+$1.52	51% 11450-10811 (22261)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	53% 7654-6920 (14574)

Flaznorp

FC Alverca

Invested

$1,338.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$49.14

Record

51%

17649-16650 (34299)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$2,175.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$797.99

Record

50%

26441-26261 (52702)

Both legs:

Sport Lisboa e Benfica$1,698.5640.9¢-$868.05

FC Alverca$476.7369.8¢+$70.06

rabbitfoot1

FC Alverca

Invested

$1,226.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1179-1021 (2200)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

FC Alverca

Invested

$100

Value

$104

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

162-127 (289)

SnakeBall<$100

FC Alverca

Invested

$53.33

Value

$54.17

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

34723-34187 (68910)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22<$100

FC Alverca

Invested

$36.72

Value

$37.08

PnL

+$0.36

Record

65%

1245-674 (1919)

suntoriCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$32.15

Value

$31.99

PnL

-$0.16

Record

45%

13007-15781 (28788)

Venusian<$100

FC Alverca

Invested

$23.73

Value

$26.44

PnL

+$2.71

Record

51%

317-303 (620)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

FC Alverca

Invested

$9.91

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$4.86

Record

58%

29915-21972 (51887)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$11.42

Value

$13.02

PnL

+$1.6

Record

52%

6399-5797 (12196)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$7.8

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$1.52

Record

51%

11450-10811 (22261)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

7654-6920 (14574)

Research grade

NeutralFC Alverca at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FC Alverca

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Alverca wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.