Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-02?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 83¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$5.6K
$1.3K
61.6¢ → 82.5¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO notgoodluck | Yesavg 68¢ | $3.4K | $4.0K | +$625 | 61% 211-133 (344) |
CL claudesports | Yesavg 45¢ | $891.07 | $1.6K | +$702.96 | 35% 347-648 (995) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $22.5 | $22.64 | +$0.14 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $2.7 | $2.92 | +$0.22 | 36% 15259-27344 (42603) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $1.09 | $1.18 | +$0.09 | 52% 3925-3577 (7502) |
Invested
$3,399.99
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$625
Record
61%
211-133 (344)
Invested
$891.07
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$702.96
Record
35%
347-648 (995)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$0.14
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.92
PnL
+$0.22
Record
36%
15259-27344 (42603)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
3925-3577 (7502)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.