Will FC Alverca win on 2026-11-02?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$10.73

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 95.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,564

Combined PnL-$10.05

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.74

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$0.68

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Noavg 96¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$21.66	46% 7287-8596 (15883)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$5.42	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 95¢	$816.68	$779.93	+$4.08	51% 994-958 (1952)
CA Cannae	Noavg 95¢	$265.32	$267.06	+$1.74	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95¢	$67.07	$67.42	+$0.35	53% 6370-5754 (12124)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.76	$1.18	-$0.44	53% 2312-2036 (4348)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.42	$1.14	-$0.28	45% 12892-15654 (28546)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.38	$0.42	+$0.05	50% 24998-24718 (49716)

nigiri99

Invested

$4,331

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$21.66

Record

46%

7287-8596 (15883)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,084.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.42

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

ferdinand2

Invested

$816.68

Value

$779.93

PnL

+$4.08

Record

51%

994-958 (1952)

Cannae

Invested

$265.32

Value

$267.06

PnL

+$1.74

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$67.07

Value

$67.42

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

6370-5754 (12124)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.28

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24998-24718 (49716)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.