CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$50.81
50.9¢ → 59¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 50.9¢ | $376.05 | $428.19 | +$52.14 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $255.22 | $255.22 | +$0 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $100.75 | $101.76 | +$1.01 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 37.5¢ | $80.14 | $87.36 | +$7.22 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 37.5¢ | $43.47 | $48.69 | +$5.22 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $36.67 | $38.67 | +$2 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 50.8¢ | $67.9 | $66.11 | -$1.79 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $54.9 | $55.46 | +$0.56 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $6.77 | $5.69 | -$1.08 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.53 | -$0.03 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$376.05
Value
$428.19
PnL
+$52.14
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$255.22
Value
$255.22
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$100.75
Value
$101.76
PnL
+$1.01
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$80.14
Value
$87.36
PnL
+$7.22
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.9
Value
$66.11
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$55.46
PnL
+$0.56
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$6.77
Value
$5.69
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.