CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 2.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 65¢ · $988 held · ended Nov 8

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$988.31

Combined PnL

$17.5

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 65¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$566.13

Total Shares828

Combined PnL-$20.59

Under7 traders

Total Value$422.18

Total Shares1,327

Combined PnL+$38.09

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 70¢	$317.33	$294.67	-$22.67	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0xheavy888	Overavg 72¢	$262.39	$264.21	+$1.82	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 30.1¢	$137.75	$160.42	+$22.67	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 28.8¢	$77.43	$94.17	+$16.74	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$75.58	$74.23	-$1.35	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 28¢	$132.26	$37.7	+$0.66	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$29.11	$29.11	+$0	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 29.3¢	$14.27	$13.87	-$0.39	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$12.92	$12.69	-$0.23	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 70¢	$7	$7.25	+$0.25	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

RN1

Over

Invested

$317.33

Value

$294.67

PnL

-$22.67

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$262.39

Value

$264.21

PnL

+$1.82

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$137.75

Value

$160.42

PnL

+$22.67

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.43

Value

$94.17

PnL

+$16.74

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.58

Value

$74.23

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$132.26

Value

$37.7

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.11

Value

$29.11

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.27

Value

$13.87

PnL

-$0.39

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.92

Value

$12.69

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.