Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-11-08?

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 79¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$49.71

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,000

Combined PnL+$25

No5 traders

Total Value$369.48

Total Shares1,707

Combined PnL+$24.71

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO notgoodluck	Yesavg 81¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$25	62% 214-133 (347)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 19¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30.63	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
└ No leg	Noavg 19¢	$723.96	$800.17	-$19.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.5¢	$635.65	$624.07	-$11.58
FE ferdinand2CTR	Noavg 19¢	$193.92	$214.34	+$20.41	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$58.18	$63.14	+$4.96	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$51.66	$51.66	+$0	50% 34946-34393 (69339)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$36	$37.8	-$0.9	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$2.3	$2.54	+$0.24	47% 13319-14853 (28172)

notgoodluck

Yes

Invested

$4,050

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$25

Record

62%

214-133 (347)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,359.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30.63

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

Both legs:

No$723.9619¢-$19.05

Yes$635.6580.5¢-$11.58

ferdinand2CTR

Invested

$193.92

Value

$214.34

PnL

+$20.41

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$58.18

Value

$63.14

PnL

+$4.96

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$51.66

Value

$51.66

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

34946-34393 (69339)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$37.8

PnL

-$0.9

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.