Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-11-08?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$3.6K
$18.86
92.1¢ → 93.5¢
+2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$3.92 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92¢ | $724.5 | $728.44 | +$3.94 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 92¢ | $678.13 | $682.34 | +$4.21 | 57% 22219-16567 (38786) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 92¢ | $589.55 | $592.75 | +$3.2 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 92¢ | $184 | $185 | +$1 | 56% 8592-6809 (15401) |
FO forecastication4 | Noavg 92¢ | $169.22 | $171.98 | +$2.76 | 50% 1560-1566 (3126) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $50.24 | $46.47 | +$0.13 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $46.5 | $46.25 | -$0.25 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18.5 | -$0.1 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $9.25 | +$0.05 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.08 | $0.08 | +$0.01 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
Invested
$1,158.9
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$3.92
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$724.5
Value
$728.44
PnL
+$3.94
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$678.13
Value
$682.34
PnL
+$4.21
Record
57%
22219-16567 (38786)
Invested
$589.55
Value
$592.75
PnL
+$3.2
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
0xheavy888Invested
$184
Value
$185
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
8592-6809 (15401)
Invested
$169.22
Value
$171.98
PnL
+$2.76
Record
50%
1560-1566 (3126)
Invested
$50.24
Value
$46.47
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$46.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$9.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.