Will KKS Lech Poznan win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 27%
$4.8K
-$273.17
70¢ → 70.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL OldZz | Yesavg 71¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$18.1 | 46% 123-146 (269) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 30.6¢ | $995.01 | $765.67 | -$229.34 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 30.1¢ | $595.38 | $583.91 | -$11.46 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 fraj0la | Yesavg 66¢ | $500 | $503.79 | +$3.79 | 63% 278-160 (438) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 29.1¢ | $133.18 | $135.16 | +$1.98 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $71.22 | $70.15 | -$1.07 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
RA rabbitfoot1<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $45.48 | $45.82 | +$0.34 | 54% 1253-1074 (2327) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.4¢ | $55.19 | $43.75 | -$11.44 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $34 | $33.5 | -$0.5 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $40.77 | $32.26 | -$5.01 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.5¢ | $31.81 | $29.44 | -$2.37 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
Invested
$2,570
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$18.1
Record
46%
123-146 (269)
Invested
$995.01
Value
$765.67
PnL
-$229.34
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$595.38
Value
$583.91
PnL
-$11.46
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
fraj0laInvested
$500
Value
$503.79
PnL
+$3.79
Record
63%
278-160 (438)
RN1CTRInvested
$133.18
Value
$135.16
PnL
+$1.98
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$71.22
Value
$70.15
PnL
-$1.07
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Invested
$45.48
Value
$45.82
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
1253-1074 (2327)
Invested
$55.19
Value
$43.75
PnL
-$11.44
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$34
Value
$33.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$40.77
Value
$32.26
PnL
-$5.01
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$31.81
Value
$29.44
PnL
-$2.37
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.