Legia Warszawa vs. RKS Rakow Czestochowa: O/U 2.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$486

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 99.5¢

+80% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares24,362

Combined PnL+$288.57

Under4 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares13,251

Combined PnL+$197.42

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 55.3¢	$13.4K	$13.7K	+$287.63	48% 214-236 (450)
RN1CTR	Underavg 44.5¢	$10.0K	$4.4K	-$50	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 44.6¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$485.86	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.6¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$420.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$585	$520	-$65
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$942	$1.2K	+$229.94	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 44¢	$348.28	$369.27	+$20.98	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44.7¢	$300	$130.5	-$3.5	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
dips.<$100	Overavg 98¢	$61.74	$62.69	+$0.95	46% 12026-13917 (25943)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$13,441.33

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$287.63

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$10,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,764.58

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$485.86

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Under$2,179.5844.6¢-$420.86

Over$58572¢-$65

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$942

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$229.94

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$348.28

Value

$369.27

PnL

+$20.98

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$300

Value

$130.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$61.74

Value

$62.69

PnL

+$0.95

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.