Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Korona Kielce win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$297.33

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,810

Combined PnL+$306.9

No3 traders

Total Value$72.36

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$9.58

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$907.79	$1.1K	+$152.66	57% 2109-1562 (3671)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$675.73	$829.97	+$154.24	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$55.18	$54.12	-$1.06	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$12.18	$11.72	-$0.47	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
DI dips.<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$14.57	$6.53	-$8.05	47% 11018-12633 (23651)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$907.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$152.66

Record

57%

2109-1562 (3671)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$675.73

Value

$829.97

PnL

+$154.24

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$55.18

Value

$54.12

PnL

-$1.06

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

dips.<$100

Invested

$14.57

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$8.05

Record

47%

11018-12633 (23651)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.