Will Gornik Zabrze win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 64¢ · $887 held · ends Nov 7

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$887.08

Combined PnL

-$20.35

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 63.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$513.99

Total Shares829

Combined PnL-$24.77

No3 traders

Total Value$373.09

Total Shares867

Combined PnL+$4.42

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fraj0la	Yesavg 65¢	$528.8	$504.06	-$24.74	63% 255-149 (404)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36¢	$343.78	$348.06	+$4.28	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$20.94	$21.23	+$0.29	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$9.96	$9.93	-$0.03	50% 21534-21823 (43357)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$3.8	$3.8	-$0.15	58% 47475-34259 (81734)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$528.8

Value

$504.06

PnL

-$24.74

Record

63%

255-149 (404)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$343.78

Value

$348.06

PnL

+$4.28

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$20.94

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

21534-21823 (43357)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.