Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 21?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 22

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 97.9¢

+10% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares25,961

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$206.24

Total Shares10,312

Combined PnL-$552.16

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 82.4¢	$8.6K	$10.0K	+$1.4K	46% 459-547 (1006)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 97.1¢	$8.4K	$8.4K	+$70.59	1% 3-272 (275)
paddaa	Noavg 91.5¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$345.62	60% 497-335 (832)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 86¢	$893.38	$1.0K	+$123.62	73% 1113-422 (1535)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 80¢	$580.34	$416.78	+$91.44	—
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 80.8¢	$181.65	$204.14	+$22.49	41% 3127-4493 (7620)
JE Jest55	Noavg 79¢	$158	$195.8	+$37.8	— 1-16 (17)
NadmiCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$202.5	$137.57	-$12.54	—
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$608.29	$68.67	-$539.62	10% 4-35 (39)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$65.56	$64.85	-$0.71	10% 3-28 (31)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$54.54	$53.95	-$0.59	3% 1-32 (33)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98¢	$46.91	$46.86	-$0.05	83% 24-5 (29)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32.55	$30.16	-$0.72	3% 1-28 (29)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 82¢	$40.2	$25.1	-$0.71	27% 505-1350 (1855)
Tenebrus7<$100	Noavg 86¢	$16.24	$18.49	+$2.25	0% 0-41 (41)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.16	$9.47	-$0.69	55% 624-512 (1136)

anoin123

Invested

$8,649.19

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$8,362.88

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$70.59

Record

3-272 (275)

paddaa

Invested

$5,004.54

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$345.62

Record

60%

497-335 (832)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$893.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$123.62

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$580.34

Value

$416.78

PnL

+$91.44

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$181.65

Value

$204.14

PnL

+$22.49

Record

41%

3127-4493 (7620)

Jest55

Invested

$158

Value

$195.8

PnL

+$37.8

Record

—

1-16 (17)

NadmiCTR

Yes

Invested

$202.5

Value

$137.57

PnL

-$12.54

Record

—

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$608.29

Value

$68.67

PnL

-$539.62

Record

10%

4-35 (39)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$65.56

Value

$64.85

PnL

-$0.71

Record

10%

3-28 (31)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$54.54

Value

$53.95

PnL

-$0.59

Record

1-32 (33)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$46.91

Value

$46.86

PnL

-$0.05

Record

83%

24-5 (29)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$32.55

Value

$30.16

PnL

-$0.72

Record

1-28 (29)

klli27<$100

Invested

$40.2

Value

$25.1

PnL

-$0.71

Record

27%

505-1350 (1855)

Tenebrus7<$100

Invested

$16.24

Value

$18.49

PnL

+$2.25

Record

0-41 (41)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.69

Record

55%

624-512 (1136)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 87% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.