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10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$40.25

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 93.8¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares9,783

Combined PnL+$623.92

Yes8 traders

Total Value$529.94

Total Shares12,956

Combined PnL-$583.66

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 87¢	$3.5K	$3.9K	+$366.84	46% 459-547 (1006)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 86¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$170	63% 175-102 (277)
JE Jest55	Noavg 87.8¢	$981.79	$1.1K	+$91.39	— 1-16 (17)
Udonsan	Noavg 89.5¢	$931.21	$998.78	+$67.58	—
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 91.8¢	$793.32	$829.97	+$36.65	—
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 93.8¢	$374.07	$383.04	+$8.97	— 3-0 (3)
KL klli27	Noavg 87.9¢	$381.65	$345	-$8.51	27% 499-1343 (1842)
PO PondermintCTR	Yesavg 8.1¢	$406.48	$189.53	-$211.75	60% 253-170 (423)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90.6¢	$486.27	$183.92	+$5.22	48% 11-12 (23)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$277.4	$112.96	-$164.44	— 0-19 (19)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$250	$94.76	-$155.23	42% 490-682 (1172)
DirkDiggler67CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$55.5	$50.5	-$5	59% 275-192 (467)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$61.29	$46.71	-$14.57	41% 3022-4424 (7446)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$42	$39.92	-$0.48	— 0-12 (12)
IN insideroCTR	Yesavg 9.9¢	$154.29	$29.45	-$23.83	0% 0-40 (40)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$33.25	$5.14	-$1.68	50% 274-269 (543)
FU Fulgurator	Noavg 96¢	$165.72	$4.99	-$113.73	— 2-9 (11)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$21.24	$0.87	-$7.17	— 5-5 (10)

anoin123

Invested

$3,546.12

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$366.84

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$1,462

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$170

Record

63%

175-102 (277)

Jest55

Invested

$981.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$91.39

Record

—

1-16 (17)

Udonsan

Invested

$931.21

Value

$998.78

PnL

+$67.58

Record

—

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$793.32

Value

$829.97

PnL

+$36.65

Record

—

nonkenny90

Invested

$374.07

Value

$383.04

PnL

+$8.97

Record

—

3-0 (3)

klli27

Invested

$381.65

Value

$345

PnL

-$8.51

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

PondermintCTR

Yes

Invested

$406.48

Value

$189.53

PnL

-$211.75

Record

60%

253-170 (423)

Haradwaith

Invested

$486.27

Value

$183.92

PnL

+$5.22

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$277.4

Value

$112.96

PnL

-$164.44

Record

—

0-19 (19)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$94.76

PnL

-$155.23

Record

42%

490-682 (1172)

DirkDiggler67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.5

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$5

Record

59%

275-192 (467)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.29

Value

$46.71

PnL

-$14.57

Record

41%

3022-4424 (7446)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$42

Value

$39.92

PnL

-$0.48

Record

—

0-12 (12)

insideroCTR

Yes

Invested

$154.29

Value

$29.45

PnL

-$23.83

Record

0-40 (40)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.25

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$1.68

Record

50%

274-269 (543)

Fulgurator

Invested

$165.72

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$113.73

Record

—

2-9 (11)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.24

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$7.17

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

36h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.