Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$20.65

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 34.5¢

-36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$737.1

Total Shares1,940

Combined PnL-$251.8

Yes6 traders

Total Value$815.16

Total Shares1,317

Combined PnL+$231.15

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 51.8¢	$807.02	$591.94	-$174.74	53% 3234-2906 (6140)
vinii	Yesavg 36.9¢	$166.12	$269.96	+$110.23	73% 3108-1129 (4237)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Yesavg 46.7¢	$209.24	$243.15	+$59.67	51% 327-314 (641)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 54.8¢	$692.67	$127.72	+$58.9	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
AnjunCTR	Noavg 64¢	$213.12	$126.54	-$71.6	55% 5199-4283 (9482)
cambridgeisaac	Yesavg 57¢	$114	$120	+$6	57% 1133-865 (1998)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 49.6¢	$43.39	$28.4	+$5.28	40% 6648-10054 (16702)
LornaPredicts	Yesavg 65.5¢	$140.48	$25.93	-$8.94	19% 2967-12558 (15525)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Noavg 53.4¢	$24.05	$17.1	-$4.92	55% 1473-1229 (2702)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.2	$1.52	-$0.54	23% 1827-6161 (7988)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$807.02

Value

$591.94

PnL

-$174.74

Record

53%

3234-2906 (6140)

vinii

Yes

Invested

$166.12

Value

$269.96

PnL

+$110.23

Record

73%

3108-1129 (4237)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Yes

Invested

$209.24

Value

$243.15

PnL

+$59.67

Record

51%

327-314 (641)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$692.67

Value

$127.72

PnL

+$58.9

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

AnjunCTR

Invested

$213.12

Value

$126.54

PnL

-$71.6

Record

55%

5199-4283 (9482)

cambridgeisaac

Yes

Invested

$114

Value

$120

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

1133-865 (1998)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.39

Value

$28.4

PnL

+$5.28

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

LornaPredicts

Yes

Invested

$140.48

Value

$25.93

PnL

-$8.94

Record

19%

2967-12558 (15525)

ancianoCTR<$100

Invested

$24.05

Value

$17.1

PnL

-$4.92

Record

55%

1473-1229 (2702)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.54

Record

23%

1827-6161 (7988)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

90h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.4%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$174.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

274.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.