Will Sport Boys Association win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$15.04

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 53¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$268.47

Total Shares478

Combined PnL-$2.87

No4 traders

Total Value$157.47

Total Shares334

Combined PnL+$17.91

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$142.97	$642.36	+$47.49	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.1¢	$416.28	$439.25	+$62.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.4¢	$221.86	$203.11	-$14.9
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$760	$200	+$0	56% 195-152 (347)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$100	$111	+$11
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$100	$89	-$11
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 55.9¢	$172.84	$166.86	-$5.98	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$61.64	$71.21	+$9.57	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$36.77	$65	+$3.93	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 55.2¢	$57.43	$57.18	+$3.64	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$36.67	$36.36	-$0.31	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 35.6¢	$14.74	$19.03	+$4.29	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$14.54	$8.07	-$0.22	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$2.1	$2.23	+$0.13	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$142.97

Value

$642.36

PnL

+$47.49

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Both legs:

No$416.2844.1¢+$62.39

Yes$221.8658.4¢-$14.9

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$760

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

Both legs:

Invested

$172.84

Value

$166.86

PnL

-$5.98

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$61.64

Value

$71.21

PnL

+$9.57

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$36.77

Value

$65

PnL

+$3.93

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.43

Value

$57.18

PnL

+$3.64

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.67

Value

$36.36

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$19.03

PnL

+$4.29

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.54

Value

$8.07

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.