Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 3.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$131.04

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 74.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$115.18

Over5 traders

Total Value$194.05

Total Shares475

Combined PnL+$15.87

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.6¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$121.82	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 63.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$55.79	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.4¢	$696.21	$818.07	+$121.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.6¢	$587.37	$409.72	-$177.66
VI vibing123	Underavg 64.2¢	$590.32	$584.2	-$6.12	52% 1735-1631 (3366)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$147.01	$165.61	+$18.6	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 64.1¢	$56.09	$55.57	-$0.52	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$9.25	$9.13	-$0.12	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$13.22	$6.82	-$0.05	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$6.18	$6.26	+$0.09	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$8.88	$6.24	-$2.64	47% 2157-2403 (4560)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,796.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$121.82

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,283.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$55.79

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Under$696.2163.4¢+$121.86

Over$587.3736.6¢-$177.66

vibing123

Under

Invested

$590.32

Value

$584.2

PnL

-$6.12

Record

52%

1735-1631 (3366)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$147.01

Value

$165.61

PnL

+$18.6

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$56.09

Value

$55.57

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.22

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.26

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.88

Value

$6.24

PnL

-$2.64

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.