Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 2.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 41¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 9

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$167.25

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 41¢

-29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,721

Combined PnL+$484.08

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,464

Combined PnL-$651.33

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$2.6K	$2.1K	-$463.4	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$605.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.2¢	$304.53	$447.05	+$142.53
VE Venusian	Underavg 42¢	$856.6	$1.2K	+$346.72	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 56.8¢	$1.3K	$973.34	-$358.41	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 50¢	$761	$897.98	+$136.98	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
RN1CTR	Overavg 57.9¢	$995.69	$705.07	-$290.62	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 60.8¢	$242.88	$241.62	-$1.26	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 40.6¢	$50.94	$49.51	-$1.44	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.5	+$0.1	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 47¢	$6.71	$8.42	+$1.71	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 61¢	$8.02	$7.88	-$0.15	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.11	$7.22	-$0.88	46% 30580-35679 (66259)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,568.68

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$463.4

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

Over$2,264.1656¢-$605.93

Under$304.5340.2¢+$142.53

Venusian

Under

Invested

$856.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$346.72

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,331.75

Value

$973.34

PnL

-$358.41

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$761

Value

$897.98

PnL

+$136.98

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$995.69

Value

$705.07

PnL

-$290.62

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$242.88

Value

$241.62

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$50.94

Value

$49.51

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$6.71

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.88

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.11

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$0.88

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.