Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CD Moquegua (50%) · CD Moquegua at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Club Universitario de Deportes35¢CD Moquegua65¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CD Moquegua

Consensus Traders

CD Moquegua 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$9.01

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 65¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Club Universitario de Deportes35%

CD Moquegua65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Moquegua4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,340

Combined PnL+$56.04

Club Universitario de Deportes4 traders

Total Value$909

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL-$47.02

CD Moquegua — 50%Club Universitario de Deportes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on CD Moquegua. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Moquegua 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCD Moquegua 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Club Universitario de Deportes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	CD Moqueguaavg 66.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$48.94	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 70.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$67.85	50% 32573-32704 (65277)
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 70.5¢	$1.1K	$987.53	-$84.21
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 33¢	$270	$286.36	+$16.36
SE sentrio	CD Moqueguaavg 66.4¢	$442.69	$450.55	+$7.86	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
LI LimousinCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 34.1¢	$409.75	$421.18	+$11.43	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 36.1¢	$271.09	$222.42	-$48.68	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 33¢	$173.78	$184.2	+$10.43	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
VE VenusianCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 34.1¢	$101.41	$81.21	-$20.2	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
SN SnakeBall<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 74¢	$24.79	$24.43	-$0.36	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 65¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	52% 9515-8627 (18142)

Flaznorp

CD Moquegua

Invested

$2,088.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$48.94

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$1,341.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$67.85

Record

50%

32573-32704 (65277)

Both legs:

CD Moquegua$1,071.7570.5¢-$84.21

Club Universitario de Deportes$27033¢+$16.36

sentrio

CD Moquegua

Invested

$442.69

Value

$450.55

PnL

+$7.86

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

LimousinCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$409.75

Value

$421.18

PnL

+$11.43

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

LightParadoxCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$271.09

Value

$222.42

PnL

-$48.68

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

MadridTimeCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$173.78

Value

$184.2

PnL

+$10.43

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

VenusianCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$101.41

Value

$81.21

PnL

-$20.2

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

SnakeBall<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$24.79

Value

$24.43

PnL

-$0.36

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

ameisgoat11<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

Research grade

NeutralCD Moquegua at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CD Moquegua

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on CD Moquegua. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCD Moquegua 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCD Moquegua 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Club Universitario de Deportes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CD Moquegua wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.