Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Club Universitario de Deportes (63%) · Club Universitario de Deportes at 55¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9

Club Universitario de Deportes55¢CD Moquegua45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Club Universitario de Deportes

Consensus Traders

Club Universitario de Deportes 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$163.28

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 54.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralClub Universitario de Deportes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Club Universitario de Deportes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Club Universitario de Deportes55%

CD Moquegua46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Moquegua3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,536

Combined PnL+$301.3

Club Universitario de Deportes5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,354

Combined PnL-$138.03

CD Moquegua — 38%Club Universitario de Deportes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 33.1¢	$1.5K	$4.4K	-$512.88	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 33.1¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	-$413.97
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 58.5¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$98.9
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 47.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$59.64	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 47.5¢	$926.24	$1.1K	+$137.13
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 50.4¢	$804.06	$726.58	-$77.49
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	CD Moqueguaavg 39.5¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$306.72	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI Limousin	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 48.8¢	$2.5K	$1.2K	-$57.76	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VE Venusian	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 48.8¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	-$44.01	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
SE sentrioARB<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 32¢	$311.44	$971.85	-$123.07	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 32¢	$481.44	$684.55	-$100.53
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 58.8¢	$309.84	$287.3	-$22.54
MA MadridTime	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 48.7¢	$1.5K	$719.07	-$34.63	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LightParadoxCTR	CD Moqueguaavg 46.2¢	$296.64	$292.21	-$4.43	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 50¢	$638	$192	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ CD Moquegua leg	CD Moqueguaavg 50¢	$96	$102.72	+$6.72
└ Club Universitario de Deportes leg	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 50¢	$96	$89.28	-$6.72
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 54.5¢	$98.45	$52.67	-$0.98	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 68¢	$7.56	$6.83	-$0.73	53% 2967-2581 (5548)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 55.5¢	$10	$4.65	-$0.9	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

FlaznorpARB<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$1,452.92

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$512.88

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

CD Moquegua$2,204.533.1¢-$413.97

Club Universitario de Deportes$1,448.0658.5¢-$98.9

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$1,730.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$59.64

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Both legs:

Club Universitario de Deportes$926.2447.5¢+$137.13

CD Moquegua$804.0650.4¢-$77.49

omnibus-076daaCTR

CD Moquegua

Invested

$1,314.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$306.72

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Limousin

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$2,476.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$57.76

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Venusian

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$2,384.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$44.01

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

sentrioARB<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$311.44

Value

$971.85

PnL

-$123.07

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

CD Moquegua$481.4432¢-$100.53

Club Universitario de Deportes$309.8458.8¢-$22.54

MadridTime

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$1,546.39

Value

$719.07

PnL

-$34.63

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LightParadoxCTR

CD Moquegua

Invested

$296.64

Value

$292.21

PnL

-$4.43

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$638

Value

$192

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

CD Moquegua$9650¢+$6.72

Club Universitario de Deportes$9650¢-$6.72

SnakeBallCTR<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$98.45

Value

$52.67

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$7.56

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

2967-2581 (5548)

ameisgoat11<$100

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.9

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralClub Universitario de Deportes at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Club Universitario de Deportes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Club Universitario de Deportes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.