Exact Score: Club Universitario de Deportes 3 - 1 CD Moquegua?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 93¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$427.55
$3.37
93¢ → 93¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93¢ | $346.88 | $324.33 | +$3.47 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $73.55 | $73.55 | -$0 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $15.05 | $15.05 | +$0 | 47% 2177-2413 (4590) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $6.75 | $6.75 | +$0 | 49% 2208-2325 (4533) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $6.52 | $6.52 | +$0 | 47% 2124-2359 (4483) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.45 | $1.35 | -$0.1 | 47% 2130-2385 (4515) |
Invested
$346.88
Value
$324.33
PnL
+$3.47
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$73.55
Value
$73.55
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2177-2413 (4590)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
2208-2325 (4533)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$6.52
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2124-2359 (4483)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.1
Record
47%
2130-2385 (4515)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.