Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
2 arb excluded
$3.3K
$121.19
81.8¢ → 91¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 81.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$90.92 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 81.8¢ | $530.51 | $553.92 | +$23.42 | 47% 2148-2414 (4562) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84¢ | $369.46 | $365.74 | -$3.71 | 50% 32582-32710 (65292) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 81.4¢ | $337.62 | $339.32 | +$1.69 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $281.47 | $232.3 | -$49.16 | 47% 2189-2445 (4634) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.7¢ | $229.76 | $178.44 | -$51.37 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $51.66 | $53.87 | +$2.21 | |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 79¢ | $133.68 | $144.68 | +$11 | 47% 2157-2403 (4560) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $92.32 | $78.69 | -$13.63 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $68.5 | $53.9 | -$14.64 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82¢ | $23.78 | $24.8 | +$1.02 | |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $11.96 | $9.82 | -$2.15 | 50% 48622-48197 (96819) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $2.45 | $2.48 | +$0.02 | 52% 9525-8636 (18161) |
Invested
$1,494.46
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$90.92
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$530.51
Value
$553.92
PnL
+$23.42
Record
47%
2148-2414 (4562)
Invested
$369.46
Value
$365.74
PnL
-$3.71
Record
50%
32582-32710 (65292)
Invested
$337.62
Value
$339.32
PnL
+$1.69
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
Invested
$281.47
Value
$232.3
PnL
-$49.16
Record
47%
2189-2445 (4634)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.68
Value
$144.68
PnL
+$11
Record
47%
2157-2403 (4560)
Invested
$92.32
Value
$78.69
PnL
-$13.63
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.96
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$2.15
Record
50%
48622-48197 (96819)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
9525-8636 (18161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.