Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 79¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$210.54

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 78.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,150

Combined PnL+$260.52

No3 traders

Total Value$327.92

Total Shares1,334

Combined PnL-$49.98

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 70.9¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$161.2	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 73.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$34.57	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 71.2¢	$825.94	$770.18	-$55.76	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.2¢	$431.84	$476.02	+$44.18
└ No leg	Noavg 28.8¢	$394.1	$294.16	-$99.94
SE sentrio	Yesavg 70.3¢	$635.56	$686.52	+$50.97	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$515.82	$475.81	-$40.01	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.5¢	$250.13	$282.68	+$32.55
└ No leg	Noavg 29.6¢	$265.69	$193.14	-$72.55
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 70.2¢	$336.22	$350.22	+$14	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 27.3¢	$303.49	$256.99	-$46.5	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$71.07	$66.44	-$4.63	49% 281-298 (579)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$3.35	$4.5	+$1.15	52% 9497-8605 (18102)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$3.26	$3.04	-$0.22	59% 52363-37089 (89452)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,211.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$161.2

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,007.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$34.57

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$825.94

Value

$770.18

PnL

-$55.76

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Both legs:

Yes$431.8471.2¢+$44.18

No$394.128.8¢-$99.94

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$635.56

Value

$686.52

PnL

+$50.97

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$515.82

Value

$475.81

PnL

-$40.01

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Both legs:

Yes$250.1369.5¢+$32.55

No$265.6929.6¢-$72.55

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$336.22

Value

$350.22

PnL

+$14

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$303.49

Value

$256.99

PnL

-$46.5

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Invested

$71.07

Value

$66.44

PnL

-$4.63

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.