Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-11-08?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$31.29

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,452

Combined PnL+$53.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$34.36

Total Shares494

Combined PnL-$22.6

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 90.1¢	$915.94	$956.11	+$40.16	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 90.9¢	$657.37	$614.45	+$11.58	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 94¢	$411.91	$409.72	-$2.19	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
SE sentrio	Noavg 89.7¢	$141.63	$148.45	+$6.82	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
VE Venusian	Noavg 94¢	$131.84	$126.2	-$5.63	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 89¢	$59.85	$62.86	+$3.01	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$49.58	$30.24	-$18.86	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 91¢	$10.13	$10.28	+$0.15	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.71	$3.22	-$3.49	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$1.15	$0.9	-$0.25	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

Flaznorp

Invested

$915.94

Value

$956.11

PnL

+$40.16

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$657.37

Value

$614.45

PnL

+$11.58

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$411.91

Value

$409.72

PnL

-$2.19

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

sentrio

Invested

$141.63

Value

$148.45

PnL

+$6.82

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

Venusian

Invested

$131.84

Value

$126.2

PnL

-$5.63

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$59.85

Value

$62.86

PnL

+$3.01

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.58

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$18.86

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$3.49

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.