Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua: Both Teams to Score

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$26.1

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 60.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$795.37

Total Shares1,191

Combined PnL+$66.76

Yes5 traders

Total Value$424.43

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL-$40.66

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 53.8¢	$629.55	$686.67	+$57.12	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 46.3¢	$148.76	$133.48	-$15.28	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$127.68	$109.34	-$18.34	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SE sentrio	Noavg 52.5¢	$99.06	$108.7	+$9.64	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.4¢	$88.66	$86.84	-$1.83	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.6¢	$82.7	$73.62	-$9.08	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$338.02	$21.15	+$3.87	59% 52363-37089 (89452)

Flaznorp

Invested

$629.55

Value

$686.67

PnL

+$57.12

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.76

Value

$133.48

PnL

-$15.28

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.68

Value

$109.34

PnL

-$18.34

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

sentrio

Invested

$99.06

Value

$108.7

PnL

+$9.64

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.66

Value

$86.84

PnL

-$1.83

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.7

Value

$73.62

PnL

-$9.08

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$338.02

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$3.87

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.