Will CU Técnica de Cajamarca win on 2026-11-13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$15.71

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 98.8¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,234

Combined PnL+$87.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.31

Total Shares4,026

Combined PnL-$102.74

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 92.2¢	$909.73	$975.45	+$65.23	— 0-4 (4)
dips.	Noavg 98¢	$656.63	$648.75	+$5.26	46% 90-106 (196)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98¢	$411.62	$415.17	+$3.55	80% 61-15 (76)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 91.3¢	$171.06	$169.01	+$12.99	38% 93-154 (247)
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$100.25	$30.15	-$70.1	48% 32-35 (67)
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$29.38	$17.63	-$11.75	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$13.79	$0.36	-$13.43	49% 60-63 (123)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$7.65	$0.17	-$7.46	52% 242-224 (466)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$909.73

Value

$975.45

PnL

+$65.23

Record

—

0-4 (4)

dips.

Invested

$656.63

Value

$648.75

PnL

+$5.26

Record

46%

90-106 (196)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$411.62

Value

$415.17

PnL

+$3.55

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

cigarettes

Invested

$171.06

Value

$169.01

PnL

+$12.99

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.25

Value

$30.15

PnL

-$70.1

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

canupdatelateronCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.38

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$11.75

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.79

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$13.43

Record

49%

60-63 (123)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$7.46

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.